The Year-on-year Increase in CPI in April Is Expected To Rebound, And Prices Remain Moderate Overall
April price data will be released soon. Most institutions believe that oil prices continued to rise in April, the price increase of fruits, vegetables and eggs expanded, and pork production capacity accelerated, which constituted a positive pull on the CPI. 2% or so. According to industry insiders, my country's overall price situation is moderate and will not constrain monetary policy, and there is still room for policy.
CPI rose by more than 2% year-on-year
The rise in food prices and oil prices in April constituted a positive pull on the CPI month-on-month, superimposed on the influence of tail-raising factors. The agency predicts that the year-on-year increase in the CPI in April will be 2%, or even exceed this level.
On the food side, due to the impact of the epidemic, food prices have risen super-seasonally. According to the Essence Securities report, the prices of fresh fruit and eggs rose by 9.9% and 12.3% month-on-month respectively in April, and the increase was higher than the same period in history.
On the non-food side, the lagging effect of the rise in international oil prices appeared, and the price of refined oil rose in April. According to a report from Huachuang Securities, the average retail price of gasoline on April 92 rose by about 6.6% month-on-month.
There is room for policy regulation
Recently, international oil prices have fluctuated sharply, and expectations of high global inflation have increased, and the risk of imported inflation in my country has increased. Guo Liyan, director of the Comprehensive Situation Research Office of the China Academy of Macroeconomics, said that my country's grain, oil, meat, eggs, milk, fruit and vegetable production is stable and the supply is sufficient, and the logistics and distribution links in a few areas affected by the epidemic are gradually opening up, which is the basis for maintaining the overall stability of the prices of important commodities for people's livelihood. More solid, it is expected that the CPI increase will continue to operate within a reasonable range during the year.
